Canada’s visible minority population to nearly double by 2031
The number of visible minorities in Canada is expected to nearly double in the next two decades, according to new projections that highlight the country’s growing diversity.
One in every three Canadians will be non-white by 2031, Statistics Canada
said Tuesday. In Toronto, the country’s most diverse city, nearly two in three faces will be non-white.
“A larger share of the visible minority population will be born in Canada, so they will be children of immigrants or grandchildren of immigrants,” said Laurent Martel, a Statscan analyst. “So it is the face of the Canadian-born population that is likely to change over the next two decades.”
Overall, between 29 and 32 per cent of the Canadian population could belong to a visible minority group in 2031, double the proportion recorded in the 2006 census, Statscan said in a release.
As well, at least a quarter of the population could be born outside the country in 20 years, with more than half of those from Asia
. This would be the highest proportion ever of foreign-born Canadians, surpassing the 22 per cent level seen between 1911 and 1931.
Canada has one of the highest foreign-born populations in the world; only Australia and New Zealand have higher proportions, Mr. Martel said.
The foreign-born population is expected to increase about four times faster than the rest of the population, driving much of the country’s growth.
In addition, diversity will also increase among the Canadian-born population due to visible minorities’ younger age structure and slightly higher fertility rates.
The country could have between 11.4 million and 14.4 million visible minorities by 2031, depending on the growth projections used. In 2006, the country had 5.3 million non-whites. By contrast, the rest of the population will grow by less than 12 per cent.
Visible minorities are defined as “persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour.”
Almost all visible minorities will live in large cities, with 71 per cent calling Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal home. By 2031, 63 per cent of Torontonians would be non-white if current demographic trends continue. Vancouver would be 59 per cent non-white while Montreal would be 31 per cent.
The national statistics agency developed the projections using several growth scenarios based on different immigration, fertility and mortality assumptions.
Newcomers settle in urban areas because the sheer size of the cities means more job opportunities, which then leads to the creation of ethnic communities, said University of Toronto professor Jeffrey Reitz.
“(They) become kind of magnets in themselves for people of similar backgrounds,” said the ethnic and immigration studies professor. “The existence of the communities in the cities sort of tends to become a self-perpetuating process.”
As is the case now, South Asians would still be the largest group, representing 28 per cent of the visible minority population. The community would more than double from 1.3 million people in 2006 to between 3.2 million and 4.1 million in the next two decades. The Chinese population is expected to grow from 1.3 million to between 2.4 million and 3 million. Overall, however, the share of Chinese would drop to 21 per cent from 24 per cent.
Statscan said the black and Filipino populations could double in size. The fastest growth is among Arabs and West Asians, groups that could more than triple in 20 years.
By 2031, Statscan said 47 per cent of second-generation Canadians would be non-white, nearly double the proportion of 24 per cent in 2006. Second generation means people who are born in Canada to at least one foreign-born parent.
The country’s increasing diversity will also mean changes in Canadians’ religious affiliations. By 2031, the number of people who are non-Christian would almost double from 8 per cent in 2006 to 14 per cent. Of those, about half would be Muslim, up from one-third in 2006. Conversely, the number of Christians would decline to 65 per cent from 75 per cent.
With a report from The Canadian Press
Proposals could limit migrant workers’ stay in Canada
They arrive on the promise of good jobs, fair wages and an opportunity to support their families back home.
But thousands of migrant labourers — those who land in British Columbia to pick fruit, in Ontario to work in factories and farms, or in Nova Scotia to cut Christmas trees — are anxiously waiting the outcome of a debate in Ottawa that could dramatically impact their ability to work here.
“These changes put the onus on the workers when the government should really be protecting them,” said Chris Ramsaroop, who is with the outreach group Justica for Migrant Workers. “It makes workers more fearful to speak out against the work conditions they face because their contracts won’t be extended, or they’ll be sent home.”
One migrant worker from Thailand, who came to work on an Ontario mushroom farm three years ago, said he hopes Ottawa will make it easier for foreign workers to apply for Canadian citizenship.
“There’s nothing waiting for me back home. I just wish I’m allowed to stay and continue my work,” said the man, who did not want his real name used.
He makes $9.50 an hour and pays income taxes.
Last October, Immigration Minister Jason Kenney announced proposed changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. But since Parliament was prorogued, those proposals have not yet been dealt with.
One reform includes making workers who have been in Canada for four years ineligible to work here again for at least six years. Citizenship and Immigration Canada spokesman Doug Kellam said workers who want to stay in Canada for more than four years need to go through the same citizenship application processes as everyone else.
“In general, the idea is that a temporary foreign worker, by nature, is here temporarily. For people who are looking for paths to permanent residency, there are several ways and they will have four years to have the opportunity to apply,” said Kellam. “This notion that temporary foreign workers should be here on an ongoing basis is not what we’re trying to encourage.”
Other proposed revisions to the program include: banning employers who abuse migrant workers from participating in the program for two years; putting new time limits on some foreign worker programs; and deporting migrant workers if job offers prove false.
“These changes serve a couple of purposes,” said Kellam. “They’re intended to protect temporary foreign workers from abuse and exploitation.”
The ministry is reviewing public input on the changes.
According to the latest statistics, there were more than 70,000 people who came to Canada on temporary work permits in 2008, with the majority of the migrant workers arriving from the U.S., Mexico and the Philippines.
No One is Illegal — a group that supports non-status residents — estimates upwards of 300,000 migrant workers across the country, in a number of occupations including in greenhouses, tobacco and mushroom farms, chicken factories, fast-food restaurants, construction sites, nanny services, and the Alberta oilsands. As many as 10,000 foreign workers came to help build the Olympic facilities in Vancouver, the group says.
“Some have been here for 12 to 15 years, some have worked here for eight months,” said Syed Hussan. “They’re live-in caregivers, agricultural workers, refugee claimants, students who decide they want to stay and work. They’re in the back of our restaurants as chefs, dishwashers and cleaners. They’re in our oilsands. They’re the backbone of some of these industries.”
He said these workers are treated like an “expendable labour source” by Ottawa. “These workers are fully taxed, fully exploited.”
He said a subgroup of these workers are those who are working but don’t have any immigration status in Canada. Hussan estimates there may be as many as 500,000 people in this undocumented group, but admitted it was difficult to provide accurate numbers.
The lack of job and immigration status security makes it even harder for these workers to speak out against issues like unsafe work conditions because many feel that their rights are less than those with citizenship, said Hussan.
On Christmas Eve, four migrant workers plunged 13 floors to their deaths when the scaffolding collapsed at the north Toronto apartment building balcony where they were working. The workers, who were non-unionized, were not wearing any safety harnesses.
The deaths triggered a provincewide safety blitz on construction sites, with results expected to be released early April by the Ontario Ministry of Labour.
Karl Flecker, the national director of the Canadian Labour Congress said migrant workers have little recourse against employers, who can threaten deportation.
“Workers who speak up about the number of hours they work, their lack of proper vocational training, or refuse unsafe work may be painted as unscrupulous workers,” said Flecker. “All the employer needs to do is put a call into the Canadian Border Services Agency, say these employees aren’t working out and they’re out of the country. This fear creates a situation of unequal power.”
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